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election2001
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Readers Poll Con 52% Lab 28% LD 18% Nat 2% Enter your vote to win £1M

Montgomeryshire
Liberal Democrat hold

Constituency Profile by Robert Waller
Do not be fooled by a name (and accent) originating far from Mid Wales, or by the Conservatives strong showing here in the 1999 Euro-elections; this seat is well nigh safe for the Liberal Democrats' Lembit Opik. Indeed with one aberrant period at the height of Thatcherism (1979-83) this seat has been Liberal for over a century. It recorded the second highest percentage of workers employed in agriculture and related occupations in the 1991 Census, after Galloway and Upper Nithsdale, which tends to coincide with either Liberal or Nationalist preferences in both Wales and Scotland - it is closely followed in this particular list by Ceredigion, Carmarthen East/Dinefwr (which Plaid Cymru are likely to win from Labour next time), Orkney/Shetland and Brecon/Radnor. Farmers are independent folk who do not seem to like governments of any colour very much.

Personality Profile by Byron Criddle
Lembit Opik, Ulster-born of Estonian parents, won this most traditional of Liberal seats in 1997, and broke his back hang-gliding in 1998. A tall, thin man with an engaging lopsided smile, and a pin-ball whizkid, he was born in 1965, educated at Royal Belfast Academical Institution and Bristol University, and worked for Proctor & Gamble in Newcastle for nine years before taking to the Montgomeryshire hills. He is essentially a two-club politician: predicting the wipe-out of the planet by oncoming rogue asteroids, and urging a ‘Third Way’ between banning fox hunting and permitting its unlicensed continuance, preferably before the asteroids arrive. This latter compromise proposal was backed by some of his Liberal Democrat colleagues, but few others in a vote early this year. The Commons only Lutheran, he has pointed out that his Scrabble-evoking name rearranged spells “I kil to be MP.”
ACORN Population Profile of the constituency
  Area
Percent
GB
Percent
Index
GB=100
 
Thriving
Wealthy Achievers, Suburban Areas 4.80% 14.99% 32.02
Affluent Greys, Rural Communities 41.36% 2.13% 1,945.09
Prosperous Pensioners, Retirement Areas 0.57% 2.49% 22.77
Expanding
Affluent Executives, Family Areas 0.37% 4.43% 8.45
Well-Off Workers, Family Areas 1.60% 7.27% 21.96
Rising
Affluent Urbanites, Town & City Areas 0.00% 2.56% 0.00
Prosperous Professionals, Metropolitan Areas 0.00% 2.04% 0.00
Better-Off Executives, Inner City Areas 0.49% 3.94% 12.46
Settling
Comfortable Middle Agers, Mature Home Owning Areas 18.31% 13.04% 140.44
Skilled Workers, Home Owning Areas 4.94% 12.70% 38.93
Aspiring
New Home Owners, Mature Communities 6.04% 8.14% 74.13
White Collar Workers, Better-Off Multi Ethnic Areas 4.27% 4.02% 106.22
Striving
Older People, Less Prosperous Areas 5.16% 3.19% 161.99
Council Estate Residents, Better-Off Homes 9.36% 11.31% 82.71
Council Estate Residents, High Unemployment 0.00% 3.06% 0.00
Council Estate Residents, Greatest Hardship 2.73% 2.52% 108.52
People in Multi-Ethnic, Low-Income Areas 0.00% 2.10% 0.00
Unclassified
Unclassified 0.00% 0.06% 0.00
Household Income of the constituency
  Area
Percent
GB
Percent
Index
GB=100
 
£0-5K 9.42% 9.41% 100.10
£5-10K 20.08% 16.63% 120.75
£10-15K 20.14% 16.58% 121.46
£15-20K 15.46% 13.58% 113.84
£20-25K 10.81% 10.39% 104.03
£25-30K 7.34% 7.77% 94.42
£30-35K 4.97% 5.79% 85.73
£35-40K 3.38% 4.33% 78.07
£40-45K 2.33% 3.27% 71.36
£45-50K 1.63% 2.48% 65.47
£50-55K 1.15% 1.90% 60.29
£55-60K 0.82% 1.47% 55.71
£60-65K 0.59% 1.15% 51.64
£65-70K 0.44% 0.91% 48.00
£70-75K 0.32% 0.72% 44.74
£75-80K 0.24% 0.57% 41.80
£80-85K 0.18% 0.46% 39.14
£85-90K 0.14% 0.37% 36.73
£90-95K 0.11% 0.31% 34.54
£95-100K 0.08% 0.25% 32.54
£100K + 0.32% 1.34% 23.58

Local Map of the constituency
Montgomeryshire - Local Map of the constituency

National Map of the constituency
Montgomeryshire - National Map of the constituency

Swing
1992-1997 1997-2001
Labour (6.74%) Plaid Cymru (0.24%)
Conservative (-  6.56%) Liberal Democrat (-  2.62%)
Conservative (1.76%) Liberal Democrat (3.53%) Plaid Cymru (1.76%)
Labour (-  7.26%)
Con - 6.56%
Lab 6.74%
LD - 2.62%
PC 0.24%
Con 1.76%
Lab - 7.26%
LD 3.53%
PC 1.76%
2001 Results - General Election (7 June 2001)
Lembit Opik
Liberal Democrat hold
Con Conservative (27.90%) 8,085 27.90%
Lab Labour (11.88%) 3,443 11.88%
LD Liberal Democrat (49.40%) 14,319 49.40%
PC Plaid Cymru (6.79%) 1,969 6.79%
Oth Other (4.03%) 1,167 4.03%
Maj Majority (21.51%) 6,234 21.51%
Turn Turnout (65.51%) 28,983 65.51%
2001 Results - General Election (7 June 2001)
Lembit Opik
Liberal Democrat hold
L Paul Davies 3,443 11.88%
P Ruth Davies 210 0.72%
C David Jones 8,085 27.90%
LD Lembit Opik 14,319 49.40%
UK David Rowlands 786 2.71%
PC David Senior 1,969 6.79%
I Reg Taylor 171 0.59%
Candidates representing 7 parties stood for election to this seat.
1997 Results - General Election (1 May 1997)
Lembit Opik
Liberal Democrat
Con Conservative (26.14%) 8,344 26.14%
Lab Labour (19.14%) 6,109 19.14%
LD Liberal Democrat (45.88%) 14,647 45.88%
PC Plaid Cymru (5.04%) 1,608 5.04%
Ref Referendum (2.75%) 879 2.75%
Oth Other (1.06%) 338 1.06%
Maj Majority (19.74%) 6,303 19.74%
Turn Turnout (74.91%) 31,925 74.91%
1992 Results -  General Election (9 April 1992)
Liberal Democrat
Con Conservative (32.70%) 10,822 32.70%
Lab Labour (12.40%) 4,115 12.40%
LD Liberal Democrat (48.50%) 16,031 48.50%
PC Plaid Cymru (4.80%) 1,581 4.80%
Oth Other (1.50%) 508 1.50%
Maj Majority (15.80%) 5,209 15.80%
Turn Turnout (78.45%) 33,057 78.45%

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