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election2001
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Readers Poll Con 52% Lab 28% LD 18% Nat 2% Enter your vote to win 1M

Vale of Glamorgan
Labour hold

Constituency Profile by Robert Waller
The Vale remains one of the three best hopes for the Conservative Party in Wales, along with Monmouth, which they actually won in the Welsh assembly elections (constituency section) in May 1999, and Clwyd West, which Labour held by 760 votes. The Tories came within a thousand here too (Labour's Jane Hutt obtained a majority of 926). However, it should not be forgotten that the Labour MP John Smith regained his seat in parliament (he had previously held it in 1989-92) by over 10,000 in 1997, far more than the Labour leads in the other two seats mentioned in this entry, and indeed than in Cardiff North, Preseli Pembrokeshire (and if you count gaps from a Conservative third place, Conwy and Cardiff Central too). This would make it much more of a surprise if it did fall at the next General Election.

Personality Profile by Byron Criddle
John Smith was elected in 1997, having held the seat after a by-election from 1989 to 1992. Unkindly dubbed (by Simon Hoggart) a "low-tech flying fortress loaded with 10,000lbs of sycophancy", he is an orthodox loyalist with an air-brushed CND past whose by-election victory in 1989 symbolised Labour's climb-back to electoral credibility under the Kinnock leadership. Born 1951 of Welsh-Irish parents but with the commonest name in the English language, and educated at Penarth County School and (later) Cardiff University, he was initially a building worker, air force cook and joiner before lecturing in business studies. Safe rather than inspired, ex-mustachioed, he has served as a PPS to John Reid.
ACORN Population Profile of the constituency
  Area
Percent
GB
Percent
Index
GB=100
 
Thriving
Wealthy Achievers, Suburban Areas 29.92% 14.99% 199.52
Affluent Greys, Rural Communities 0.00% 2.13% 0.00
Prosperous Pensioners, Retirement Areas 1.33% 2.49% 53.42
Expanding
Affluent Executives, Family Areas 4.30% 4.43% 97.20
Well-Off Workers, Family Areas 8.35% 7.27% 114.82
Rising
Affluent Urbanites, Town & City Areas 0.60% 2.56% 23.22
Prosperous Professionals, Metropolitan Areas 0.05% 2.04% 2.31
Better-Off Executives, Inner City Areas 0.44% 3.94% 11.08
Settling
Comfortable Middle Agers, Mature Home Owning Areas 12.31% 13.04% 94.44
Skilled Workers, Home Owning Areas 18.89% 12.70% 148.70
Aspiring
New Home Owners, Mature Communities 8.88% 8.14% 109.06
White Collar Workers, Better-Off Multi Ethnic Areas 2.22% 4.02% 55.18
Striving
Older People, Less Prosperous Areas 2.99% 3.19% 94.01
Council Estate Residents, Better-Off Homes 7.71% 11.31% 68.18
Council Estate Residents, High Unemployment 0.42% 3.06% 13.64
Council Estate Residents, Greatest Hardship 1.59% 2.52% 63.32
People in Multi-Ethnic, Low-Income Areas 0.00% 2.10% 0.00
Unclassified
Unclassified 0.00% 0.06% 3.44
Household Income of the constituency
  Area
Percent
GB
Percent
Index
GB=100
 
0-5K 8.55% 9.41% 90.80
5-10K 16.07% 16.63% 96.60
10-15K 16.55% 16.58% 99.85
15-20K 13.85% 13.58% 101.94
20-25K 10.72% 10.39% 103.15
25-30K 8.06% 7.77% 103.72
30-35K 6.01% 5.79% 103.84
35-40K 4.49% 4.33% 103.67
40-45K 3.37% 3.27% 103.33
45-50K 2.55% 2.48% 102.89
50-55K 1.95% 1.90% 102.41
55-60K 1.50% 1.47% 101.92
60-65K 1.17% 1.15% 101.45
65-70K 0.92% 0.91% 101.00
70-75K 0.72% 0.72% 100.58
75-80K 0.58% 0.57% 100.20
80-85K 0.46% 0.46% 99.84
85-90K 0.37% 0.37% 99.52
90-95K 0.30% 0.31% 99.23
95-100K 0.25% 0.25% 98.96
100K + 1.31% 1.34% 97.58

Local Map of the constituency
Vale of Glamorgan - Local Map of the constituency

National Map of the constituency
Vale of Glamorgan - National Map of the constituency

Swing
1992-1997 1997-2001
Labour (9.59%) Plaid Cymru (0.48%)
Conservative (-  9.95%) Liberal Democrat (-  0.03%)
Conservative (0.67%) Liberal Democrat (3.05%) Plaid Cymru (3.76%)
Labour (-  8.47%)
Con - 9.95%
Lab 9.59%
LD - 0.03%
PC 0.48%
Con 0.67%
Lab - 8.47%
LD 3.05%
PC 3.76%
2001 Results - General Election (7 June 2001)
John Smith
Labour hold
Con Conservative (35.02%) 15,824 35.02%
Lab Labour (45.42%) 20,524 45.42%
LD Liberal Democrat (12.22%) 5,521 12.22%
PC Plaid Cymru (6.35%) 2,867 6.35%
Oth Other (0.99%) 448 0.99%
Maj Majority (10.40%) 4,700 10.40%
Turn Turnout (67.37%) 45,184 67.37%
2001 Results - General Election (7 June 2001)
John Smith
Labour hold
PC Chris Franks 2,867 6.35%
C Susan Inkin 15,824 35.02%
LD Dewi Smith 5,521 12.22%
L John Smith 20,524 45.42%
UK Niall Warry 448 0.99%
Candidates representing 5 parties stood for election to this seat.
1997 Results - General Election (1 May 1997)
John Smith
Labour gain
Con Conservative (34.35%) 18,522 34.35%
Lab Labour (53.89%) 29,054 53.89%
LD Liberal Democrat (9.17%) 4,945 9.17%
PC Plaid Cymru (2.58%) 1,393 2.58%
Ref 0 0.00%
Oth 0 0.00%
Maj Majority (19.53%) 10,532 19.53%
Turn Turnout (80.21%) 53,914 80.21%
1992 Results -  General Election (9 April 1992)
Conservative
Con Conservative (44.30%) 24,207 44.30%
Lab Labour (44.30%) 24,188 44.30%
LD Liberal Democrat (9.20%) 5,042 9.20%
PC Plaid Cymru (2.10%) 1,159 2.10%
Oth 0 0.00%
Maj Majority (0.00%) 19 0.00%
Turn Turnout (81.30%) 54,596 81.30%

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